Protection conferred by COVID-19 vaccination, prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, or hybrid immunity against Omicron-associated severe outcomes among community-dwelling adults (preprint)

Introduction: We assessed protection conferred by COVID-19 vaccines and/or prior SARS-CoV-2 infection against Omicron-associated severe outcomes during successive sublineage-predominant periods. Methods: We used a test-negative design to estimate protection by vaccines and/or prior infection against hospitalization/death among community-dwelling, PCR-tested adults aged >50 years in Ontario, Canada between January 2, 2022 and June 30, 2023. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the relative change in the odds of hospitalization/death with each vaccine dose (2-5) and/or prior PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (compared with unvaccinated, uninfected subjects) up to 15 months since the last vaccination or infection. Results: We included 18,526 cases with Omicron-associated severe outcomes and 90,778 test-negative controls. Vaccine protection was high during BA.1/BA.2 predominance, but was generally <50% during periods of BA.4/BA.5 and BQ/XBB predominance without boosters. A third/fourth dose transiently increased protection during BA.4/BA.5 predominance (third-dose, 6-month: 68%, 95%CI 63%-72%; fourth-dose, 6-month: 80%, 95%CI 77%-83%), but was lower and waned quickly during BQ/XBB predominance (third-dose, 6-month: 59%, 95%CI 48%-67%; 12-month: 49%, 95%CI 41%-56%; fourth-dose, 6-month: 62%, 95%CI 56%-68%, 12-months: 51%, 95%CI 41%-56%). Hybrid immunity conferred nearly 90% protection throughout BA.1/BA.2 and BA.4/BA.5 predominance, but was reduced during BQ/XBB predominance (third-dose, 6-month: 60%, 95%CI 36%-75%; fourth-dose, 6-month: 63%, 95%CI 42%-76%). Protection was restored with a fifth dose (bivalent; 6-month: 91%, 95%CI 79%-96%). Prior infection alone did not confer lasting protection. Conclusion: Protection from COVID-19 vaccines and/or prior SARS-CoV-2 infections against severe outcomes is reduced when immune-evasive variants/subvariants emerge and may also wane over time. Our findings support a variant-adapted booster vaccination strategy with periodic review.

Effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 monovalent and bivalent vaccine booster doses against Omicron severe outcomes among adults aged >=50 years in Ontario, Canada (preprint)

Objective: We estimated the effectiveness of booster doses of monovalent and bivalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against Omicron-associated severe outcomes among adults aged [≥]50 years in Ontario, Canada. Methods: We used a test-negative design to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE), with unvaccinated adults as the comparator, against hospitalization or death among SARS-CoV-2-tested adults aged [≥]50 years between June 19, 2022 and January 28, 2023 stratified by time since vaccination. We explored VE by vaccine product (Moderna Spikevax (R) monovalent; Pfizer-BioNTech Comirnaty(R) monovalent; Moderna Spikevax(R) BA.1 bivalent; Pfizer-BioNTech Comirnaty(R) BA.4/BA.5 bivalent). Results: We included 3,755 Omicron cases and 14,338 test-negative controls. For the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech monovalent vaccines, VE 7-29 days after vaccination was 85% (95% confidence interval [CI], 72-92%) and 88% (95%CI, 82-92%), respectively, and was 82% (95%CI, 76-87%) and 82% (95%CI, 77-86%) 90-119 days after vaccination. For the Moderna BA.1 bivalent vaccine, VE was 86% (95%CI, 82-90%) 7-29 days after vaccination and was 76% (95%CI, 66-83%) 90-119 days after vaccination. For the Pfizer-BioNTech BA.4/BA.5 bivalent vaccine, VE 7-29 days after vaccination was 83% (95%CI, 77-88%) and was 81% (95%CI 72-87%) 60-89 days after vaccination. Conclusions: Booster doses of monovalent and bivalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccines provided similar, strong initial protection against severe outcomes in community-dwelling adults aged [≥]50 years in Ontario. Nonetheless, uncertainty remains around waning protection of these vaccines.

Effectiveness and Duration of Protection of a Fourth Dose of COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine among Long-Term Care Residents in Ontario, Canada (preprint)

Background: As of December 30, 2021, Ontario long-term care (LTC) residents who received a third dose of COVID-19 vaccine [≥]84 days previously were offered a fourth dose to prevent a surge in COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality due to the Omicron variant. Seven months have passed since fourth doses were implemented, allowing for the examination of fourth dose protection over time. Methods: We used a test-negative design and linked databases to estimate the marginal effectiveness (4 versus 3 doses) and vaccine effectiveness (VE; 2, 3, or 4 doses versus no doses) of mRNA vaccines among Ontario LTC residents aged [≥]60 years who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 between December 30, 2021 and August 3, 2022. Outcome measures included any Omicron infection, symptomatic infection, and severe outcomes (hospitalization or death). Results: We included 21,275 Omicron cases and 273,466 test-negative controls. The marginal effectiveness of a fourth dose <84 days ago compared to a third dose received [≥]84 days ago was 23% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 17-29%), 36% (95%CI 26-44%), and 37% (95%CI 24-48%) against SARS-CoV-2 infection, symptomatic infection, and severe outcomes, respectively. Additional protection provided by a fourth dose compared to a third dose was negligible against all outcomes [≥]168 days after vaccination. Compared to unvaccinated individuals, vaccine effectiveness (VE) of a fourth dose decreased from 49% (95%CI 44%-54%) to 18% (95%CI 5-28%) against infection, 69% (95%CI 62-75%) to 44% (95%CI 24-59%) against symptomatic infection, and 82% (95%CI 77-86%) to 74% (95%CI 62-82%) against severe outcomes <84 days versus [≥]168 days after vaccination. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that fourth doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines provide additional protection against Omicron-related outcomes in LTC residents, but the protection wanes over time, with more waning seen against infection than severe outcomes.

Effectiveness of a Fourth Dose of COVID-19 Vaccine among Long-Term Care Residents in Ontario, Canada (preprint)

Background: As of December 30, 2021, Ontario long-term care (LTC) residents who received a third dose of COVID-19 vaccine [≥]84 days previously were offered a fourth dose to prevent a surge in COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality due to the Omicron variant. Methods: We used a test-negative design and linked databases to estimate the marginal effectiveness (4 versus 3 doses) and vaccine effectiveness (VE; 2, 3, or 4 doses versus no doses) of mRNA vaccines among Ontario LTC residents aged [≥]60 years who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 between December 30, 2021 and March 2, 2022. Outcome measures included any Omicron infection, symptomatic infection, and severe outcomes (hospitalization or death). Results: We included 9,957 Omicron cases and 46,849 test-negative controls. The marginal effectiveness of a fourth dose [≥]7 days after vaccination versus a third dose received [≥]84 days prior was 40% (95% Confidence Interval[CI], 34-45%) against infection, 63% (95%CI, 51-71%) against symptomatic infection, and 54% (95%CI, 31-70%) against severe outcomes. VE (compared to an unvaccinated group) increased with each additional dose, and for a fourth dose was 65% (95%CI, 60-70%), 87% (95%CI, 81-91%), and 92% (95%CI, 87-95%), against infection, symptomatic infection, and severe outcomes, respectively. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that compared to a third dose received [≥]84 days ago, a fourth dose recommendation for LTC residents improved protection against infection, symptomatic infection, and severe outcomes caused by Omicron. Compared to unvaccinated individuals, fourth doses provide strong protection against symptomatic infection and severe outcomes but the duration of protection remains unknown.

Vaccine effectiveness of BNT162b2 against Omicron and Delta outcomes in adolescents (preprint)

Introduction Data on vaccine effectiveness (VE) against Omicron in adolescents are limited. We estimated 2-dose and 3-dose VE against Omicron and Delta in adolescents aged 12-17 years in Ontario, Canada. Methods We conducted a test-negative design study among SARS-CoV-2-tested adolescents aged 12-17 years between November 22, 2021 (date of first Omicron detection) and March 6, 2022; we assessed Delta outcomes prior to January 2, 2022. We used multivariable logistic regression to compare the odds of vaccination in cases to symptomatic test-negative controls and calculated VE as 1-adjusted odds ratio. Results VE was lower against symptomatic Omicron infection than against Delta and decreased more rapidly over time, from 51% (95%CI, 38-61%) in the 7-59 days following a second dose to 29% (95%CI, 17-38%) after 180 days, compared to 97% (95%CI, 94-99%) and 90% (95%CI, 79-95%) for the same intervals against symptomatic Delta infection. Overall, 2-dose VE against severe outcomes caused by Omicron was 85% (95%CI, 74-91%) [≥]7 days following a second dose and estimates were similar over time. VE against symptomatic Omicron infection was 62% (95%CI, 49-72%) [≥]7 days following a third dose. Discussion Two-dose VE against symptomatic Omicron infection wanes over time in adolescents. While lower than observed against Delta, protection against severe outcomes appears to be maintained over time. A third dose substantially improves protection against Omicron infection, but 3-dose VE is only moderate at approximately 60% in the early period following vaccination and the duration of this protection is unknown.

Background incidence rates of adverse events of special interest related to COVID-19 vaccines in Ontario, Canada, 2015 to 2020, to inform COVID-19 vaccine safety surveillance (preprint)

Background: Background incidence rates are critical in pharmacovigilance to facilitate identification of vaccine safety signals. We estimated background incidence rates of nine adverse events of special interest related to COVID-19 vaccines in Ontario, Canada. Methods: We conducted a population-based retrospective observational study using linked health administrative databases for hospitalizations and emergency department visits among Ontario residents. We estimated incidence rates of Bells palsy, idiopathic thrombocytopenia, febrile convulsions, acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, myocarditis, pericarditis, Kawasaki disease, Guillain-Barre syndrome, and transverse myelitis during five pre-pandemic years (2015-2019) and 2020. Results: The average annual population was 14 million across all age groups with 51% female. The pre-pandemic mean annual rates per 100,000 population during 2015-2019 were 43.9 for idiopathic thrombocytopenia, 27.8 for Bells palsy, 25.0 for febrile convulsions, 22.8 for acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, 11.3 for myocarditis/pericarditis, 8.6 for pericarditis, 2.9 for myocarditis, 1.9 for Guillain-Barre syndrome, 1.7 for transverse myelitis, and 1.6 for Kawasaki disease. Females had higher rates of acute disseminated encephalomyelitis and transverse myelitis while males had higher rates of myocarditis, pericarditis, and Guillain-Barre syndrome. Bells palsy, acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, and Guillain-Barre syndrome increased with age. The mean rates of myocarditis and/or pericarditis increased with age up to 79 years; males had higher rates than females: from 12-59 years for myocarditis and 12 years and older for pericarditis. Febrile convulsions and Kawasaki disease were predominantly childhood diseases and generally decreased with age. Conclusions: Our estimated background rates will permit estimating numbers of expected events for these conditions and facilitate detection of potential safety signals following COVID-19 vaccination.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against Omicron or Delta infection (preprint)

Background The incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, including among those who have received 2 doses of COVID-19 vaccines, has increased substantially since Omicron was first identified in the province of Ontario, Canada. Methods Applying the test-negative design to linked provincial data, we estimated vaccine effectiveness against infection (irrespective of symptoms or severity) caused by Omicron or Delta between November 22 and December 19, 2021. We included individuals who had received at least 2 COVID-19 vaccine doses (with at least 1 mRNA vaccine dose for the primary series) and used multivariable logistic regression to estimate the effectiveness of two or three doses by time since the latest dose. Results We included 3,442 Omicron-positive cases, 9,201 Delta-positive cases, and 471,545 test-negative controls. After 2 doses of COVID-19 vaccine, vaccine effectiveness against Delta infection declined steadily over time but recovered to 93% (95%CI, 92-94%) [≥]7 days after receiving an mRNA vaccine for the third dose. In contrast, receipt of 2 doses of COVID-19 vaccines was not protective against Omicron. Vaccine effectiveness against Omicron was 37% (95%CI, 19-50%) [≥]7 days after receiving an mRNA vaccine for the third dose. Conclusions Two doses of COVID-19 vaccines are unlikely to protect against infection by Omicron. A third dose provides some protection in the immediate term, but substantially less than against Delta. Our results may be confounded by behaviours that we were unable to account for in our analyses. Further research is needed to examine protection against severe outcomes.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against variants of concern, Canada (preprint)

Objectives: To estimate the effectiveness of BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), and ChAdOx1 (AstraZeneca) vaccines against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe outcomes (COVID-19 hospitalization or death) caused by the Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351), Gamma (P.1), and Delta (B.1.617.2) variants of concern (VOCs) during December 2020 to May 2021. Methods: We conducted a test-negative design study using linked population-wide vaccination, laboratory testing, and health administrative databases in Ontario, Canada. Results: Against symptomatic infection caused by Alpha, vaccine effectiveness with partial vaccination ([≥]14 days after dose 1) was higher for mRNA-1273 than BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1. Full vaccination ([≥]7 days after dose 2) increased vaccine effectiveness for BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 against Alpha. Protection against symptomatic infection caused by Beta/Gamma was lower with partial vaccination for ChAdOx1 than mRNA-1273. Against Delta, vaccine effectiveness after partial vaccination tended to be lower than against Alpha for BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273, but was similar to Alpha for ChAdOx1. Full vaccination with BNT162b2 increased protection against Delta to levels comparable to Alpha and Beta/Gamma. Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization or death caused by all studied VOCs was generally higher than for symptomatic infection after partial vaccination with all three vaccines. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that even a single dose of these 3 vaccine products provide good to excellent protection against symptomatic infection and severe outcomes caused by the 4 currently circulating variants of concern, and that 2 doses are likely to provide even higher protection.

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccines against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 outcomes in Ontario, Canada (preprint)

Objectives: To estimate the effectiveness of one and two doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against symptomatic infection and severe outcomes. Design: Using a test-negative design study and linked laboratory, vaccination, and health administrative databases, we estimated adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) against symptomatic infection and severe outcomes (hospitalization or death) using multivariable logistic regression. Setting: Ontario, Canada between 14 December 2020 and 19 April 2021. Participants: Community-dwelling adults aged [≥]16 years who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 and had COVID-19 symptoms. Interventions: Pfizer-BioNTech's BNT162b2 or Moderna's mRNA-1273 vaccine. Main outcome measures: Laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 identified by RT-PCR; hospitalization or death associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results: Among 324,033 symptomatic individuals, 53,270 (16.4%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 and 21,272 (6.6%) received 1 or more vaccine dose. Among test-positive cases, 2,479 (4.7%) had a severe outcome. aVE against symptomatic infection 14 days or more after receiving only 1 dose was 60% (95%CI, 57 to 64%), increasing from 48% (95%CI, 41 to 54%) at 14-20 days after the first dose to 71% (95%CI, 63 to 78%) at 35-41 days. aVE 7 days or more after receiving 2 doses was 91% (95%CI, 89 to 93%). Against severe outcomes, aVE 14 days or more after receiving 1 dose was 70% (95%CI, 60 to 77%), increasing from 62% (95%CI, 44 to 75%) at 14-20 days to 91% (95%CI, 73 to 97%) at 35 days or more, whereas aVE 7 days or more after receiving 2 doses was 98% (95%CI, 88 to 100%). For adults aged 70 years and older, aVE estimates were lower after receiving 1 dose, but were comparable to younger adults after 28 days. After 2 doses, we observed high aVE against E484K-positive variants. Conclusions: Two doses of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines are highly effective against both symptomatic infection and severe outcomes. Effectiveness is lower after only a single dose, particularly for older adults shortly after the first dose.

Characteristics associated with household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Ontario, Canada (preprint)

BACKGROUND: Within-household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection has been identified as one of the main sources of spread of COVID-19 after lockdown restrictions and self-isolation guidelines are implemented. Secondary attack rates among household contacts are estimated to be five to ten times higher than among non-household contacts, but it is unclear which individuals are more prone to transmit infection within their households. METHODS: Using address matching, a cohort was assembled of all laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 residing in private households in Ontario, Canada. Descriptive analyses were performed to compare characteristics of cases in households that experienced secondary transmission versus those that did not. Logistic regression models were fit to determine index case characteristics and neighbourhood characteristics associated with transmission. FINDINGS: Between January and July, 2020, there were 26,152 cases of COVID-19 residing in 21,226 households. Longer testing delays ([≥]5 days versus 0 days OR=3.02, 95% CI: 2.53 - 3.60) and male sex (OR=1.28, 95% CI: 1.18 - 1.38) were associated with greater odds of household secondary transmission, while being a healthcare worker (OR=0.56, 95% CI: 0.50 - 0.62) was associated with lower odds of transmission. Neighbourhoods with larger average economic family size and a higher proportion of households with multiple persons per room were also associated with greater odds of transmission. INTERPRETATION: It is important for individuals to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection as soon as symptoms appear, and to isolate away from household contacts; this is particularly important in neighbourhoods with large family sizes and/or crowded households.